The third and final week of the AFL bye rounds has been relatively uneventful from a Brownlow perspective, but Round 14 saw some interesting results for the season. Richmond proved they are a contender in 2022 after taking into account Carlton, Essendon upset St.Kilda, while Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs are still chasing the final after solid wins to sit just outside the top 8.
Again, we bring you our analysis and AFL Round 14 Brownlow Voting Predictions for every match of the round below!
And for the updated rolling leaderboard, head over to our 2022 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
Overview AFL Brownlow Round 14
There wasn’t much significant Brownlow action in round 14 and most of the contenders enjoyed a week off. Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh were in action for Carlton, but it will be interesting to see if any of them vote against Richmond. We missed them both.
Callum Mills also had a solid game against Port but it was a lost effort so we didn’t let him get votes there.
AFL Round 14 Brownlow Vote
Richmond 11.15.81 v Carlton 9.12.66
Richmond had to work hard for the win in slippery conditions at the G, but they got past a stubborn Carlton. Liam Baker (27 sales, 7 points) and Dion Prestia (33 sales, 13 approvals) were the clear stars for the Tigers as they were generally even across the board. Sam Dochery (31 disposals, 11 points) was excellent for the Blues, while Sam Walsh (34 disposals) and Patrick Cripps (34 disposals) were both busy, but perhaps not enough to get a vote here.
Dion Prestia – 2.5
Liam Baker – 2.5
Sam Docherty – 1
St.Kilda 11.6.72 beats by Essendon 15.17.107
The Saints were disappointing as the Dons ramped up the pressure and speed that helped them take an impressive win. Mason Redman played one of his best games with 31 disposals and 11 goals, while Jye Caldwell (23 disposals, 7 tackles) was good in the middle, and Jake Stringer (16 disposals, 6 tackles, 2 goals) helped inspire his squad when challenged the Saints in the third quarter. Jade Gresham (28 sales, 3 goals), Jack Sinclair (31 sales, 7 points) and Brad Hill (26 sales, 10 points) gave their best for the Saints, but they didn’t get much support.
Mason Redman – 3
Jade Gresham – 2
Jye Caldwell – 1
Port Adelaide 12.10.82 from Sydney 8.11.59
A great win for Port over the Swans kept them in the hunt for action in September. Brownlow medalist Ollie Wines (34 disposals, 10 clearances) and Connor Rozee (29 disposals, 1 goal) were outstanding in midfield after an early injury to Zak Butters, while Todd Marshall was a strong striker with 4 goals from 14 disposals and 8 brands. Isaac Heeney was the best for the Swans with 4 goals from 16 disposals and 8 points.
Ollie Wines – 3
Todd Marshall – 1
Connor Rozee – 1
Isaac Heeney – 1
West Coast 9.9.63 beats by Geelong 12.9.81
The Cats did enough to take the points, but the Eagles welcomed some key players back, making them much more competitive than they’ve been in recent weeks. Cam Guthrie (25 disposals, 13 tackles) and Tom Atkins (24 disposals, 5 tackles) were the best for the Cats, while Tyson Stengle (15 disposals, 3 goals) was brisk forward. Jack Redden (24 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances) was busy for the Eagles while Shannon Hurn (20 disposals, 11 points) tried to hold on strong in defense.
Cam Guthrie – 3
Tyson Stengle – 1
Jack Rescue – 1
Tom Atkins – 1
GWS Giants 16.9.105 final by Western Bulldogs 19.11.125
It was a classic old-fashioned shootout where the Dogs smashed the scoreboard to hold off the Giants. There were many outstanding performances, but none were better than Toby Greene, who scored 7 goals from 21 disposals and 6 points. Despite losing the match, he will be hard to beat for the 3 Brownlow votes. Jack Macrae was outstanding with 37 disposals, 9 tackles, 6 evictions and a goal, while Tim English (23 disposals, 6 points, 34 hits, 10 evictions) enjoyed Braydon Preuss’ early injury. Aaron Naughton (5 goals, 10 disposals, 6 points) and Cody Weightman (5 goals, 11 disposals, 6 points) both picked up a bag of goals as well. Stephen Coniglio (32 disposals, 2 goals) and Tom Green (32 disposals, 8 eliminations) were also excellent. Great game!
Toby Greene – 3
Jack Macrae – 2
Tim English – 0.5
Stephen Rabbit – 0.5
Gold Coast 18.8.116 final Adelaide 10.13.73
The game was closer than the scoreboard looked, with Gold Coast leaving late to take the points. Ben Ainsworth (20 disposals, 3 goals) and Izak Rankine (17 disposals, 3 goals) were the difference forward, while Matt Rowell (19 disposals, 11 tackles, 7 clearances) and Noah Anderson (28 disposals, 6 clearances) were effective around the congestion. Rory Laird (42 disposals, 6 disposals) and Jordan Dawson (32 disposals, 6 points, 1 goal) were the best for the Crows.
Ben Ainsworth – 3
Rory Laird – 2
Jordan Dawson – 0.5
Isaac Rankine – 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote prediction system works, we allocate 6 votes per game so our total vote count is the same as the official 3-2-1 system, but we allocate those votes as we see fit more than three players. Some games are very difficult to determine which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split achievements and when in doubt give half points to each player. So, for example, if two players dominate and it is too difficult to split their achievements, they each get 2.5 votes, while the remaining 1 vote is given to another player(s). This gives us a predictive total that is closer to their actual total, rather than guessing. We can then create a ‘range’ for each player (ie a min and max that we think players can gauge) with the idea that the variations of the half votes will be equal in the long run.
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