Round 12 concludes with a blockbuster Sunday night in Perth as third-seeded Fremantle takes on second-seeded Brisbane at Optus Stadium. The winner could potentially be at the top of the ladder by the end of this weekend, so there’s plenty at stake in the clash!
Jack Tobin is here with a full preview of this game and be sure to check out BeforeYouBet’s AFL Tips page for coverage of every game this weekend.
Fremantle vs Brisbane Preview & Betting Tips
Optus Stadium, Sunday, June 5, 5:20 PM AEST
Injuries: Michael Walters, Heath Chapman, Jye Amiss, Nathan O’Driscoll, Matt Taberner, Joel Western
Fremantle has been hit hard by injury this week with Michael Walters (hamstring), Matt Taberner (back) and Heath Chapman (hamstring) all from last week’s side. Neil Erasmus, Mitch Crowden, Lloyd Meek, Ethan Hughes, Nathan Wilson and Connor Blakely have been added to the expanded roster. Young key striker Jye Amiss was placed on the inactive list after suffering a kidney injury in the WAFL that ended his season. Positive news for the Dockers is that Nat Fye will return via the WAFL this week to his first AFL-level game this season.
The Dockers ended Melbourne’s 17-game winning streak with a staggering 12 goals in one second half to turn a 30-point deficit into a 38-point win. Justin Longmuir came in with a meticulous plan and the Dockers were able to control the game and the spread record plus 58 disposals, plus 12 contested possessions, plus 4 tackles and plus 56 undisputed runs.
Fremantle’s two losses leading up to round 11 were hampered by inefficiency on offense. Against Gold Coast, Fremantle kicked 4.9 and scored just 16% of their inside 50’s. Against Collingwood, the Dockers kicked 6.8, scoring from just 26% of their inside 50’s. Last weekend they were able to rectify their problems before the ball, kicking 14.10 and scoring from 41% of their inside 50’s. Fremantle will face the highest scoring team in the AFL and will have to produce what they could in the second half against Melbourne.
Injuries: Joe Daniher, Kai Lohmann
The Lions have the smallest injury roster in the AFL with only Joe Daniher (shoulder) and Kai Lohmann (ankle) and both players are set to be back in three weeks. Hugh McCluggage is back on the side after he missed with a hamstring injury, with last week’s medi-sub Mitch Robinson the only omission at this stage.
Brisbane bounced back from a shocking loss to Hawthorn, with a 14-point win over GWS in a high-scoring encounter at the Gabba. The Lions trailed 30 points in the first quarter, but have scored 15 times better than the Giants since then. Led by Lachie Neale (39 disposals, 2 goals), Brisbane dominated the inside and won the contentious possession with 29, which was ultimately how the Lions gained the upper hand.
Brisbane is the number one scoring team in the AFL with an average of 117 points per game and has scored 96 points more than the second highest scoring team in Richmond. The Lions have scored more than 100 points in their last six games and will have a big job to continue that form, against the Dockers, the number one defense in the AFL.
It’s a battle between offense and defense as the number one offense in Brisbane (117 points per game) and the number one defense in Fremantle (66 points per game) face each other. The Lions have won five of their last six games against Freo by an average margin of 42 points. Fremantle relies heavily on transition scoring so if Brisbane can contain that it will go a long way towards winning the match.
Walters and Taberner’s losses are critical to the functioning of Fremantle’s forward structure. With conditions looking favorable in Perth on Sunday, it’s hard to see the Dockers being able to keep up with Brisbane from an attacking standpoint. Brisbane has played in these top four games for a number of years and has a history of living up to them. Drawing on the Lions’ experience in this game, against a side they’ve had great success against over the past five years.
$1.95 (1.5 units)
Daniel Rich continues to be a force behind Brisbane, averaging 24 disposals per game in 2022. Rich has averaged 25 disposals in his last four matches and has reached 25 plus in more than half of his matches this season. Rich is the lead player for the Lions this season, making it easy for him to get off the job every week. Rich had a big day against the Dockers the last time these two sides met, with 28 sales.
Daniel Rich 25+ Divestments, $1.57 at Ladbrokes
Charlie Cameron is currently eighth in the Coleman Medal race with 27 goals, the most of any small forward in the AFL this season. Cameron has scored three or more goals in six of his last seven games and nine goals in his last three games against Fremantle.
Charlie Cameron 3+ goals, $2.60 with Ladbrokes
Will Brodie was one of the top recruits of the season and went on to become one of Fremantle’s key players. Brodie is in the AFL’s top eleven for disputed assets, evictions and divestitures. Brodie has averaged 32 sales per game over the past month and has had a very consistent season averaging 28 sales per game.
Will Brodie 30+ Divestments, $2.35 at Ladbrokes