The Saints will aim to win their fourth game at a trot when they take on the Brisbane Lions of the Gabba on Saturday night. Check out our full preview and betting tips for the clash below.
Don’t forget to visit our AFL Tips page for special previews of all six games in round 13 of the season.
Brisbane vs St Kilda Betting Tips
Gabba, Saturday, June 11, 7:25 PM (AEST)
Injuries: Darcy Gardiner (Out) Joe Daniher, Kai Lohmann (Test)
Unless something goes wrong in training this week, Daniher will be available to play St Kilda on Saturday night. The Lions are still awaiting results from scans of Gardiner’s rib injury he sustained against Fremantle, which will likely put him out of the game.
The Lions looked like they would cruise home to a top four finish and likely meet the Melbourne in the Grand Final. However, like the Demons, Brisbane has made mistakes in recent weeks losing to Hawthorn before claiming a sloppy win over the Giants and then losing to the Dockers on the road.
They are now only above Fremantle in percentage terms but have something to be excited about as key striker Joe Daniher is set to return to the lineup this week. It will be the first time Daniher and his running mates Dan McStay and Eric Hipwood have played on the same team all season, and the now three-pronged attack with McStay’s rise looks extremely dangerous.
Injuries: Nick Coffield, Dan Hannebery, Jack Hayes, Jack Steele (Out)
St Kilda have a relatively clean bill of health coming from the mid-season farewell, with Steele being the obvious notable absentee at this stage of the proceedings. Jack Higgins and Hunter Clark have proven to be fit and could make their comeback this week against the Lions.
After disappointing back-to-back losses to the Power and Demons, the Saints looked like a strong side for the next three weeks, taking a brilliant win over Geelong before dealing business against the weaker sides of Adelaide and North Melbourne. They get another real test this week to prove their worth as they travel north.
The Saints have had a top two defense in the league this season, with just 70 points per game and with tall defenders in Howard, Battle and Wilkie alongside the dual rick combo, they are one of the few teams in the league equipped to deal. with a fully fit Brisbane forward line.
I think Brisbane is the stronger side at the Gabba, but the Saints will have the added benefit of the extra week break here. There are a few key players for the Lions who will not be 100% match fit, such as Hipwood, Daniher and Zorko.
The Lions start as favorites at 17.5 point, which I think is a bit high due to the above factors. The Saints’ defense has been too good this season to allow a blowout here.
St Kilda +17.5
$2.00 (1.5 units)
Bradley Hill has been enjoying his role since moving back to the half-back line in recent weeks. In his last two games, he has amassed an average of 31.5 touches and has a great shot at only 25 against the Lions.
Brad Hill 25+ Divestments ($2.02 at Ladbrokes)
Ben Long has been doing his job at the forefront of the Saints this season, generally riding the most damaging Lions at center/forward. I think he will spend some time this week on Hugh McCluggage in an effort to contain his influence. McCluggage only costs $1.75 to get 25+ touches at Ladbrokes, so you have to assume that when his over/under gets closer to game time it will be 26.5 or 27.5. I like the unders on both songs.
Hugh McCluggage Under 26.5 > Divestments (opportunities coming soon)