Home Sports 2022 AFL Round 14: St Kilda vs Essendon Preview & Betting Tips

2022 AFL Round 14: St Kilda vs Essendon Preview & Betting Tips

The Saints take on the Bombers on what should be an emotional Friday night as the home side once again celebrate the life of Danny Frawley in the annual ‘Spud’s Game’. As always, we’ve got you covered with a full preview and betting tips for the Marvel Stadium clash below.

Remember, you can go to our AFL Tips page for full previews of all six matches over the weekend of Round 14.

St Kilda vs Essendon Betting Tips

Marvel Stadium, Friday, June 17, 7:50 PM (AEST)

St Kilda

Ins: Hunter Clark, Jack Billings, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Ryan Byrnes
Out: Daniel McKenzie, Jarrod Lienert, Marcus Windhager, Mitch Owens, Mason Wood

The Saints remained reasonably healthy until their retirement round, but they’ve started to suffer a few injuries since then. Thankfully they have one of the deepest squads in the league and have the luxury of bringing Jack Billings and Hunter Clark back into the lineup this week.

The Saints traveled to Brisbane last week and put in a brave performance despite some difficult circumstances. They sustained three injuries throughout the game, leaving them with only two fit players on the bench for most of the second half. After leading much of the game, the Lions kicked off in the final quarter to take a 21-point win.

The loss broke a three-game winning streak for the Saints, and they will desperately try to take advantage of this game against an easier opponent before an absolute gauntlet of a run home kicks off next week. Their last nine games of the season include matchups against Sydney x2, Carlton, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, Geelong and one more match against Brisbane.

Essendon

Ins: Andrew McGrath, Brayden Ham, Massimo D’Ambrosio
Outs: Alec Waterman, Darcy Parish, Tom Cutler, Zach Reid

The Bombers’ bad season got worse during their Friday night loss to the Blues when star midfielder Darcy Parish went down with a calf injury. They are also still without Devon Smith and Nic Cox.

What a tumultuous season it has been for the Bombers thus far. They are in 2nd last place on the ladder with just two wins and have lost their last four consecutive games. In their very weak defense they had an absolute horror run to start the season and have yet to play against West Coast, GWS, North Melbourne or Gold Coast.

That’s about as much defense you can give the Bombers, who looked really awful in some games. Their midfield in particular has been decimated and their stars’ willingness to run only one way is fully visible at this point.

Match Prediction

Flash back to this matchup last year, where the Bombers took a monstrous 75-point win at Marvel Stadium and the two sides were on two very different paths. People speculated whether or not the Saints should begin rebuilding, while the Bombers were touted as the next big step.

This time, the Saints start at home as big favorites by 26.5 points. In years gone by I would probably think this is a major threat to the Saints but given the form of the two teams this season and the fact that they will get excited when they honor Danny Frawley it’s hard to see them lose this one .

I think the 26.5 points are a bit too high for me to take with real confidence, instead I like the 1-39 margin.

Saints 1-39

$2.15 (2 pieces)

Prop Bets

I think Brad Hill’s chances of hitting 30+ here are outrageous at $6.75. He trailed the Lions, but his last two games before that resulted in 30 and 33 goals. He obviously played a different part in those two games and he tends to play better when the Saints are favourites. The Bombers allow the fifth most divestments of any team in the league.

Selling Brad Hill 30+ ($6.80 at BetRight)

Dan Butler has been playing a little more on the ground lately, while Jack Higgins stays closer to home. However, if this game spirals out of control in Saints’ favor, then it could be a ‘fill your boat’ type game for St Kilda on a high-score Marvel deck. Like Dan Butler’s chances to act.

Dan Butler 2+ Goals ($3.00 at Ladbrokes)

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