Round 16 closes with a big showdown in the west as Fremantle receives Port Adelaide at Optus Stadium. Both sides are in good form, having won three of their last four matches, so this should be an entertaining match.
Jack Tobin has a sneak peek at Sunday night football for you, and be sure to check out our AFL Tips page for tips on every game this season!
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide Preview & Betting Tips
Optus Stadium, Sunday 3rd July, 5:20 PM AEST
Injuries: Blake Acres, Jye Amiss, Heath Chapman, Nathan O’Driscoll, Sam Switkowski, Josh Treacy, Darcy Tucker, Liam Henry
The Dockers must make at least one substitution, with Liam Henry out with a hamstring injury. Michael Walters, Nathan Wilson, Connor Blakely and Sam Sturt have been added to the expanded roster. Sam Switkowski’s back injury and Blake Acres’ hamstring injury are Fremantle’s main concerns, but overall the injury report is not too bad for the Dockers.
Fremantle failed in a big test against Carlton last week, outplayed in all facets in a 31-point defeat at Marvel Stadium. Fremantle’s midfield has been one of the best in the AFL this season, but they were taken to the cleaners by the Blues, losing the tally by 44, the inside 50 by 24, clearings by 14 and the disputed possessions by 4.
After scoring above 90 points for three consecutive weeks, the Dockers scored their third lowest score of the season. The lack of supply within 50 was more of an issue than the running of the front line itself, but Fremantle’s tendency to lose their attacking power is a major concern for a team looking to go deep into September.
Injuries: Riley Bonner, Zak Butters, Trent Dumont, Ollie Lord, Scott Lycett, Jake Pansini, Josh Sinn, Brynn Teakle
Riley Bonner will miss 3-4 weeks with a broken cheekbone, while Sam Mayes has been left out on the side that beat the Gold Coast last week. Darcy Byrne-Jones, Robbie Gray and Orazio Fantasia headline the expanded team. Veteran ruckman Scott Lycett returns this weekend from a shoulder injury via the SANFL, giving hopes he can return to the AFL side in two weeks.
Port Adelaide took three wins from their last four games with a solid two point win over Gold Coast in Adelaide last weekend. The Power is one match out of eight en route to Round 16, and remains in the hunt for a notable final spot after the start of the season 0-5.
Port Adelaide’s defenses have improved dramatically over the past nine weeks, averaging 61 points per game over the last nine games. In the first five rounds of the season, the Power received an average score of 91 points per game. If the Power is going to cause a disturbance in this match, their defense will need to be on top of the Fremantle forward line.
This is a crucial game for both teams with Fremantle looking to stay in the top four and Port Adelaide chasing a top eight finish. The depth of the Dockers midfield will be the distinguishing factor in this clash. Brayshaw, Brodie, Serong, Fyfe and Mundy will be too much for the Force to contain.
Home advantage will be a major advantage for the Dockers in this clash, with Port Adelaide 2-4 on the road this season. Fremantle are 6-2 at Optus Stadium this season, with an average win of 38 points and the Power have never beaten the Dockers at Optus Stadium. With their top four position on the line this weekend, Fremantle expects to bounce back and cover the -13.5 line.
$2.00 (1.5 units)
Connor Rozee’s development into one of Port Adelaide’s best players this season was the biggest asset of a disappointing season for the Power. Rozee was thrown into midfield in round five and has averaged 25 disposals per game since then. Rozee hasn’t fallen below 21 game disposals since his move to midfield and his consistency offers excellent value.
Connor Rozee 25+ Divestments, $1.82 at Ladbrokes
Three of the last four games between these two sides have gone above 152.5 points and the last five games at Optus Stadium have brought in an average total of 154 points. Expect Fremantle to be more aggressive with the ball this week after a poor performance against Carlton, which should create opportunities for both sides to score.
Total points over 152.5, $1.88 at Ladbrokes
Will Brodie was the only Fremantle midfielder to make an appearance last week, netting 36 disposals continuing his remarkable first season in purple. Brodie has averaged 28 disposals per game this season, and he has ramped it up over the course of the season, averaging 30 disposals per game in his last seven games. Port Adelaide doesn’t have a match-up that physically suits Brodie, so a big gig is at stake.
Will Brodie 30+ Divestments, $2.70 at Ladbrokes