AFL Tips & Example – Round 18

Round 18 of the 2022 AFL features two huge Saturday night encounters that will play a huge part in shaping this season’s Top 4.

Friday, July 15, 7:50 PM (AEST)

Western Bulldogs St Kilda
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
f f
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 164: Western Bulldogs 77 v St Kilda 84 (3 draws)

Last meeting: AFL R10 2021: Western Bulldogs 21.18 (144) dftd St Kilda 5.3 (33)

Final Thoughts: It’s now or never for the Dogs who, if they lose this massive game on Friday night, will find themselves two games out of the Top 8 and, with five games left to play, will almost certainly miss the final (after reaching the Last year’s Grand Final). After a humble loss to the Swans in round 17, which raised big questions for Luke Beveridge, star midfielder Bailey Smith returns at the most opportune moment.

For the Saints, who are currently only out of 8 in percentage terms, the match is on the same high stakes with a tough run home (including a final series of games against finals in Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney). It’s also a chance to take revenge on a 111-point smash in their final encounter with the Dogs. However, the Saints have a good recent record against Beveridge’s men, winning the previous three prior to that game.

Tip: Leash, Western Bulldogs -8.5 @ $1.90

Saturday, July 16, 1:45 PM (AEST)

Adelaide Collingwood
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
f f
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 46: Adelaide 15 v Collingwood 30 (1 draw)

Last meeting: AFL R2 2022: Collingwood 15.10 (100) dftd Adelaide 8.10 (58)

Final Thoughts: Despite winning seven on the bounce, the Pies were far from convincing on round 17, scraping home against the humble north. However, she puts another valuable four points in the box for the final footy. Four more here against the equally humble Crows would almost assure Craig McRae’s side will be in his first year in the lead this September. A string of dominant appearances has seen Nick Daicos shorten to $1.05 in Palmerbet’s Rising Star market (from $3.10 a month ago) – expect him to return to a big role.

While the Crows remain an opportunity at home, in 2022 their incentives are diminishing by the week and they simply don’t have the hunger to compete as parties like Collingwood do now. This was evident in last week’s defeat to the Hawks. Against a side of Pies they haven’t beaten since 2016 (and lost their last four at home), they could struggle again.

Tip: Margin, Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.12

Saturday, July 16, 1:45 PM (AEST)

GWS Brisbane
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
f f
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 13: GWS 7 v Brisbane 6

Last meeting: AFL R11 2022: Brisbane Lions 16.14 (110) dftd GWS Giants 15.6 (96)

Final Thoughts: Like Adelaide, the Giants’ incentives are quickly running out in 2022, best marked by last week’s dismal try against Port Adelaide in which they scored just three goals. And while this is technically their “home” game at Manuka Oval, the Giants have had a poor recent record at the venue, losing their last five games there.

The Lions go into this as favorites, but not as strong in the mutual market as you might expect for a Top 4 side. They are holding onto their position within the double chance spots after losing three of their last five. Serious questions are being raised as to whether they could fail again in this year’s final series and it’s imperative for Chris Fagan to get some momentum in his side before September.

Tip: total score, less than 174.5 @ $1.88

Saturday July 164:35 PM (EST)

North Melbourne Richmond
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
f f
FOL FOL
I/C I/C

History: Played 162: North Melbourne 73 v Richmond 87 (2 draws)

Last meeting: AFL R21 2021: Richmond 13.11 (89) dftd North Melbourne 8.8 (56)

Final Thoughts: While North was admirable in their efforts against the Pies last week, any positive vibes (if there could be a loss) quickly evaporated with David Noble’s departure this week. It’s another sad chapter for the club, for whom the end of 2022 can’t come soon enough. If they can repeat the intensity they showed against Collingwood last week, however, supporters would walk away happy.

For Richmond, four points are simply a must to establish their precarious position in the Top 8. At their best, Damien Hardwick’s side seems to be fighting out for a fourth flag in six years. At worst, however, they have proven to be very ill-disciplined and have given away game-winning positions in the last six weeks (against Sydney, Geelong and Gold Coast). The Tigers need an increase in their percentage given the precarious nature of the Top 8, and will see this as the perfect opportunity against a North Melbourne outfit who have now lost their last 14 in a row – 12 of them by over 45 points.

Tip: H2H, Richmond @ $1.93

Saturday July 167:25 PM (EST)

Carlton Geelong
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
f f
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 222: Carlton 118 v Geelong 102 (2 draws)

Last meeting: AFL R17 2021: Carlton 5.14 (44) lost to Geelong 10.10 (70)

Final Thoughts: Match of the round, between the league’s most in shape side and a Top 4 aspiring. Geelong laid down their biggest flag mark of 2022 with a comprehensive win over Melbourne on lap 17. That win was their seventh in a row, and they are starting favorites in this one to make it eight. While they could very well meet at the MCG in September, the fact is that Geelong and Carlton have only faced each other once in the past 11 years at the venue; last season when the Cats had 26-point victors in a low-scoring affair.

How the Cats deal with twin forwards Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow (who both scored five goals last weekend) could well determine the final result, a problem compounded by Tom Stewart’s absence.

Tip: Line, Geelong -7.5 @ $1.90

Saturday, July 16, 7:30 PM (AEST)

Fremantle Sydney
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
f f
FOL FOL
I/C I/C

History: Played 38: Fremantle 17 v Sydney 20 (1 draw)

Last meeting: AFL R19 2021: Sydney 14.14 (98) dftd Fremantle 8.10 (58)

Final Thoughts: If Carlton v Geelong gets game-of-the-round status, then this clash isn’t far behind. Both came off dominant victories in round 17, the two young exciting teams could very well play another thriller at Optus Stadium, where last season the Dockers had two-point winners. With a relatively easy last three games of the season, the win here would put the Fremantle in the box to secure a Top 4 spot in 2022.

The Swans have been bad on the road in recent months, losing three of their last four. The only win, however, was against premiership favorites Melbourne, encapsulating Sydney’s up-and-down season. John Longmire’s men had issues with dominant forward lines in 2022 (see: Carlton on Lap 10), so how they handle the likes of Lobb, Fyfe and Taberner could well determine who walks away with four points.

Tip: H2H, Sydney @ $2.49

Sunday, July 17, 1:10 PM (AEST)

hawthorn west coast
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
f f
FOL FOL
I/C (from) I/C (from)

History: Played 54: Hawthorn 24 v West Coast 30

Last meeting: AFL R8 2021: Hawthorn 8.12 (60) lost to West Coast 14.14 (98)

Final Thoughts: While both clubs were disappointing in 2022, they are entering it with varying levels of confidence. The Hawks broke a winless streak last week with a clinical win over Adelaide, while the Eagles – despite being underdogs against Carlton – showed up only for a quarter in what was a poor showing. Both will be sent to the bottom six this year with no hopes of final footy, and as such they are both looking to the future with one eye on them.

Despite all the positivity surrounding the somewhat resurgent Eagles who have taken it to more fanatical opponents in the past month, the fact remains that they have only won one game since Round 5 – against 16th-seeded Essendon. However, Adam Simpson’s men have won four of their last five against the Hawks, including their last two games with the MCG.

Tip: line, west coast +28.5 @ $1.90

Sunday, July 17, 3:20 PM (AEST)

Melbourne Port Adelaide
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
f f
FOL FOL
I/C (from) I/C (from)

History: Played 37: Melbourne 15 v Port Adelaide 22

Last meeting: AFL R4 2022: Port Adelaide 4.12 (36) lost to Melbourne 10.8 (68)

Final Thoughts: The Premier League race is tightening and, after a fairly extensive defeat to Geelong last week, Dees fans are getting tense. Last season they roared into the final streak, but this year they stumbled in the second half of the season, and Simon Goodwin would be desperate to get some momentum. Not that they play badly, mind you. But the praise of invincibility that some poured out on them early this season has all but evaporated. The Dees are very approachable. Melbourne has won their last nine interstate encounters, so won’t be phased by a trip north to Darwin.

The Power remains a game (and percentage) outside the Top 8. And, provided Richmond does the job over North Melbourne’s spoonbills as expected, Ken Hinkley’s men would fall two games outside the final spots with a defeat here by just five games go. As such, by all accounts, this is a must-win for Port Adelaide who, despite a good spell of football lately, are paying the price for a 0-5 start.

Tip: Line, Melbourne -11.5 @ $1.90

Sunday, July 17, 4:40 PM (AEST)

Essendon Gold Coast
Pos Player Pos Player

B

B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
f f
FOL FOL
I/C (from) I/C (from)

History: Played 12: Essendon 9 v Gold Coast 2 (1 draw)

Last meeting: AFL R22 2021: Gold Coast 4.6 (30) lost to Essendon 14.14 (98)

Final Thoughts: The weekend will conclude with the most difficult match to choose from all nine clashes. The Dons are on a late season revival despite their 2022 finals outlook being out the window, having won three of their last four (including their last two against finals in Brisbane and Sydney). Ben Rutten’s side will also join in with confidence, having taken out the Suns in their last four encounters at Marvel Stadium.

Gold Coast is also driving at a huge peak. After one of the club’s most famous wins this week, they are knocking on the door of the Top 8 with a win. Trailing 40 points against Richmond last week, all remaining hopes for the final seemed to be dashed. But an exciting comeback keeps them in with a recording of a first-ever final series, currently $4.00 to make it with Palmerbet.

Tip: H2H, Gold Coast @ $1.90