According to recent reports, former US President Donald Trump is concerned whether the recent overthrow of Roe v. Wade will help the GOP and its chances of reelection in 2024.
Publicly, he said the ruling was a “victory,” but privately, The New York Times and The Washington Post both report on Trump’s doubts. According to the Times, Trump privately told friends and advisers that overthrowing Roe would be “bad for Republicans” because it would anger suburban women. This could affect both the November midterm elections and the 2024 presidential race by voters leaning against conservatives in retaliation.
Many predict that the November midterms will turn out in favor of Republicans over Democrats. Still, the Post noted that Trump’s response to many key political issues, including abortion and gun control, has taken a more muted tone than many of his potential opponents in 2024.
“These weren’t things that were ever firmly in his wheelhouse, and I think Trump in his pre-presidential days was pro-gun safety and pro-choice,” Tim O’Brien, a Trump biographer, told the Post. “But it made sense that the coalition he was trying to build in right-wing politics, he changed.”
The Post also reports that Trump told Mar-a-Lago’s advisers that he wondered whether he should change his stance to be more in favor of moderate gun control. He considered this change in the wake of the mass shooting at a school in Uvalde that killed 21 people, mostly children.
The Republican Party is moving further and further to the right. However, Trump’s hesitant stance on these issues is largely due to the fact that he knows that the majority of people in the US support access to abortion and reasonable gun control measures.
Recent polls show that confidence in the Supreme Court is at an all-time low, according to Gallup. Multiple polls show that a majority of people in the US support the right to abortion, and according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll, a wave of support is coming after the leak of the draft opinion of SCOTUS Justice Samuel Alito.
Gallup also found that a majority of people also support reasonable gun control policies, and support for this issue is also growing after mass shootings like the two more recent ones in Uvalde and Buffalo. President Joe Biden signed a bipartisan gun control bill Friday marking Congress’ first gun control measures in decades. Meanwhile, SCOTUS has just ruled that people can carry weapons in public for self-defense.
These two issues are likely to spark a wave of votes for the upcoming midterms.
Former senior White House adviser Kellyanne Conway recently said that “pro-lifers and pro-choicers alike will be super motivated to vote in the fall election… The difference may lie in the number of potential Democratic voters who would be apathetic.” , and they will turn that apathy into anger and action, given the two Supreme Court cases,” referring to gun control and abortion.