Does Ukraine really matter?
That would have been an unthinkable question a few weeks ago, when the US and Europe seemed ready to give Ukraine all the help it needed to defeat Russia.
Why we wrote this
As the war in Ukraine exacerbates global inflation, Ukrainians worry about whether Western consumers are willing to pay the economic price that their country’s defenses will demand.
But as President Vladimir Putin makes a long-term commitment – he recently recalled Peter the Great’s 21-year war with Sweden – he is challenging Western governments and the public to stay on track. And that won’t necessarily be easy.
Allies are already beginning to disagree about what the end goal of the war should be and what kind of heavy weapons they should deliver to Kiev. Ultimately, Washington’s voice will be the loudest, but Washington is just as susceptible as its European allies to the kind of pressure that could lead Western consumers to put their own interests ahead of Ukraine’s.
Because the war has exacerbated inflation, especially for fuel prices. Are Europeans and Americans willing to pay the economic price that Ukraine’s defenses seem to demand?
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who grew up under the Soviet occupation, is convinced that it should. “Gas may be expensive,” she said recently, “but freedom is priceless.”
London
How much is Ukraine For real matter?
Just weeks ago, the question would have seemed strange, as the United States and its European allies seemed poised to step up their efforts to help Kiev defeat or even defeat Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion army.
But as the war takes a heavy toll on both sides – and the Western alliance faces major new tensions and tensions – the issue is growing in importance.
Why we wrote this
As the war in Ukraine exacerbates global inflation, Ukrainians worry about whether Western consumers are willing to pay the economic price that their country’s defenses will demand.
How the Allies decide it will show the strength of their perseverance and their dedication to the core principle behind their strong early response to the invasion: the need to defend a fellow democracy against an unprovoked attack by an autocratic power bent upon it. is to destroy her.
While Western governments remain determined to prevent an outright Russian victory, their arms deliveries in the coming weeks will show how ready they are to equip Ukraine for a counter-offensive. At the political level, the European Union will decide whether to accelerate Ukraine’s application for membership.
In both respects, the authorities in Kiev fear that they will meet with half measures or hesitation.
Behind those concerns are doubts about the alliance’s longer-term commitment, all the more so in the wake of Mr Putin’s remarks last week, which show his determination to stay in the fight. The Russian leader compared his invasion of Ukraine to that of Tsar Peter the Great 21 years war against Sweden in the early 18th century, with both wars being framed as historic steps to legitimately ‘reclaim’ ‘Slavic’ lands.
And a series of mounting pressures seem to strain the alliance’s unity and enduring power. Most visible is the diversity of opinion as to whether the goal is a clear defeat of Mr Putin or a shorter outcome.
The opinion that really matters – manifesting itself in a “coalition of the willing” built around Russia’s Baltic neighbors – is that of Washington. But the United States is not exempt from distractions that affect its allies as well.
The first is inherent in democratic societies: the shifting nature of the political agenda. Yes, Ukraine remains a major concern for policy makers in the allied capitals. And recent polls have suggested that a majority across Europe supports NATO to do more to help Ukraine.
But nearly four months after the Russian invasion, other stories have pushed the war off the front pages. In France, for example, hotly contested parliamentary elections; in Britain, another confrontation with the EU over Brexit; in America, gun violence, and Congressional hearings on last year’s Capitol attack.
And, across the alliance, the shared crisis most likely to test its long-term resolve: rising inflation.
It’s the sharp rise in the price of energy — to power industries and businesses, or to refuel cars at gas stations — that is most alarming to consumers. In a number of European countries, this is directly related to their conscious effort to deleverage from Russian energy imports.
The EU agreed ten days ago to cut Russian oil imports by 90% by the end of this year, although Hungary and Slovakia have been granted exemptions due to their heavy reliance on such energy imports. This has been a major concern for both Ukraine and Washington: EU oil purchases have financed Mr Putin’s invasion at the cost of several hundred million dollars a day.
But the deeper concern in Kiev is that as economic problems continue to gnaw at Western consumers, they will shift the focus of their governments away from war, tipping the battlefield in favor of the autocrat the allies have promised. to punish.
For while Mr Putin’s forces have already suffered setbacks that are likely to degrade his conventional military might in the coming years, the Ukrainians have seen their towns and cities reduced to rubble and suffer huge losses themselves. In the case of Ukraine, the victims are not just soldiers in uniform. Among them are large numbers of civilians helping to fend off the Russian invasion.
That partly explains why Ukraine is advocating heavy weapons and other aid to inflict an early defeat on the Russians – and its concern about the staying power of Europe’s allies.
In Washington, President Joe Biden has been clear from the outset about the costs involved in imposing sanctions on Russia, and has explicitly warned Americans of the need to bear them. But even he has had to bring inflation to the top of his policy agenda, especially with the midterm elections approaching.
As for Europe, the unfailingly pro-Ukrainian Prime Minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, has sharply formulated the challenge for the coming weeks. Recognizing that it was becoming increasingly difficult to maintain Allied unity amid rising energy prices, she cited her own experience, as a teenager, of “liberation” from the Soviet occupation of the Baltic states.
“Gas may be expensive,” she said, “but freedom is priceless. People who live in the free world don’t really understand that.”
